The link between diet and wellbeing has long captivated both individuals and policymakers. As the global population ages and longer life spans affect everything from consumption choices to housing, nutrition's role in narrowing the gap between total longevity and healthy longevity is coming into sharper focus.
The demographic challenges coinciding with the global longevity trend, and particularly healthcare costs, are shifting the emphasis from lifespan to “healthspan,” or a person’s number of years free of disease or disability, according to Morgan Stanley Research. And for good reason: Healthy older people generally enjoy a better quality of life, work longer and lower the tax burden on younger people.
“As the number of aging adults increases, it will be important to encourage an overall shift from 'sickcare,' in which people seek medical attention only after they fall ill, to healthcare based on prevention as a way to lower medical costs,” says Robert Feldman, Senior Advisor at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities. “Focusing on nutrition to help contain costs for older adults—the demographic that accounts for the most spending on healthcare—could have significant economic benefits over the long term.”
Developing longevity-focused diets that meet nutritional needs while acknowledging financial constraints could present opportunities for companies that can offer cheap, balanced and nutritious foods. Policy approaches and private-sector innovations in Japan, where longevity has risen faster and sooner than any other country, could offer a template.
Setting the Standard
Roughly a quarter of Japan’s population is forecast to be 75 or older by 2050, leaving the country looking for ways to accelerate productivity, mitigate the impacts of a shrinking labor force and reduce the social costs associated with higher longevity. Nutrition is a key piece of the final pillar that the government has tried to address via various measures.
The Japanese government has implemented a range of nutrition policies, including setting targets for body mass index, increasing the consumption of vegetables and reducing salt intake, in particular. A health ministry initiative with the goal of proposing a nutritional policy model for the world has enlisted experts from industry, academia and government, including more than 30 companies.
Meanwhile, Japan's private sector is stepping up, adapting and developing food and nutrition offerings with an eye to the new growth opportunities in older consumers' wellbeing.
A major Japanese maker of soy sauce and soy milk offers reduced-salt versions of its condiments, while its growing share of the soy milk market could boost the consumption of protein, which is a particularly important nutrient for older people to help offset muscle loss.
Pricing and Policy Around the World
While the public and private sectors promote better nutrition, price remains a limiting factor for some consumers around the world as healthy food generally costs more than unhealthy food. In the U.K, for example, unhealthy food is about 60% cheaper, according to a study published in the research journal Appetite.
"For nutrition to improve, healthy diets must become cheaper than unhealthy ones," says Feldman. "Availability and cost will be as much a part of the puzzle as what foods people choose to eat to meet their nutritional needs." Technology could play a major role in lowering the price of nutritious food. Biotechnology will probably be at the forefront, along with the development of foods with a better balance of nutrients.
The use of technology in the supply chain could also help. Vertical farming, especially near consumers, could cut costs; logistics improvements means lower delivery prices; more efficient refrigeration lowers energy expenses; and autonomous delivery systems cut labor costs.
"Producers and distributors who provide healthier, cheaper foods stand to gain from the impact of longevity on nutrition change," says Feldman.
Public policy around the world is increasingly supporting the nutrition shift. In 2023, more than 100 countries covering half the world's population taxed sugary drinks. Meanwhile, the U.K. now restricts multibuy deals and advertising of foods high in fat, salt or sugar, and limits the location of unhealthy foods in shops.
The next phase could include:
- Subsidizing consumption, production and development of nutritious foods
- Income support and work opportunities to help elderly consumers afford more nutritious food
- More education about better nutrition
- The inclusion of nutrition data on foods
Finally, a focus on sustainability will become increasingly important if the world is to produce enough nutrient-rich food to deal with a growing population while still managing the effects of climate change. An emphasis on alternative proteins, seeds, organic and healthy food, and farming adaptations will be key to driving the global agri-food industry adoption of sustainable technologies.
“Additionally, agriculture will require further policy support for new technology and practices to meet the growing nutritional needs brought on by the global longevity trend,” says Feldman.
For deeper insights and analysis, ask your Morgan Stanley Representative or Financial Advisor for the full report, “Longevity + Nutrition = Opportunity: Japan’s Lessons for the World,” (Aug. 21, 2024)
